Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 10.404862 11.938854 13.589110 15.492605 17.623643 19.931830 22.616924
2025-11-02 8.102734 10.172413 12.571482 15.542126 19.104736 23.222093 28.321602
2025-11-09 6.952663 9.251061 12.045495 15.663481 20.190820 25.633498 32.632251
2025-11-16 5.987434 8.404418 11.473860 15.610811 20.987061 27.678235 36.568037
2025-11-23 5.216325 7.678778 10.928584 15.464976 21.555971 29.364603 40.029936
2025-11-30 4.677176 7.190337 10.624640 15.571720 22.409506 31.407017 43.996510
2025-12-07 4.335900 6.931000 10.589496 16.008471 23.691719 34.034100 48.811098
2025-12-14 3.856230 6.414375 10.136416 15.806036 24.051258 35.402398 51.957433
2025-12-21 3.319128 5.751405 9.406303 15.133787 23.678264 35.708097 53.614055
2025-12-28 3.123251 5.597744 9.415797 15.538705 24.863258 38.229821 58.451705
2026-01-04 2.917440 5.405366 9.344873 15.805907 25.843101 40.482012 62.975617
2026-01-11 2.650515 5.083658 9.041258 15.683610 26.214566 41.845885 66.245077
2026-01-18 2.395246 4.761451 8.717986 15.517089 26.521435 43.147606 69.512748
2026-01-25 2.200526 4.526519 8.519255 15.534994 27.111840 44.894436 73.509535
2026-02-01 2.046687 4.348840 8.399751 15.667756 27.879039 46.925636 77.991841
2026-02-08 1.877326 4.124245 8.179419 15.610969 28.326529 48.467373 81.765941
2026-02-15 1.712077 3.889768 7.921101 15.466596 28.612016 49.751899 85.169220
2026-02-22 1.598129 3.744846 7.812260 15.572820 29.315099 51.718427 89.701734
2026-03-01 1.537186 3.701784 7.887770 16.009793 30.597650 54.662407 95.884033
2026-03-08 1.401635 3.488065 7.622804 15.807274 30.756269 55.762981 99.118421
2026-03-15 1.225680 3.167292 7.123892 15.135003 30.046762 55.383975 99.908469
2026-03-22 1.182091 3.135633 7.194020 15.539940 31.276964 58.302134 106.228698
2026-03-29 1.126964 3.071871 7.193776 15.807164 32.265292 60.837590 111.981951